Monthly Money Digest || Economy


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Market

NASDAQ 100 YTD: -1.86% S&P 500 YTD: -1.59%

(quoted as of 3/17/26) Understanding Major Indexes and Lesser-Known Indexes. Read Here​

Leading Economic Indicators

HOUSING STARTS: The US Census Bureau is a month behind on reporting due to the recent government shutdown, so the March report covers January instead of February. This delay makes it harder to use the data as a leading indicator, since more recent numbers are more valuable. Here’s how 2026 began for housing starts: overall, housing starts were up 7.2% over December, but single-family home starts actually fell by 2.8%. New permits also declined in January. (report)

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: Consumer sentiment towards the economy slightly increased in February, before the Iran War broke out, so it will be interesting to see the report in April. Overall, consumer confidence has been down and on a downward trend. (report)

YIELD CURVE: The yield curve is another key indicator for the economy’s direction. Right now, it’s positive—which is generally a good sign. However, the yield curve can invert within a matter of weeks or months, and—barring a few exceptions—an inverted curve is often followed by a recession about 12 months later.

Examples Of Lagging Economic Indicators And The Importance

Understanding lagging economic indicators can help confirm trends and give a clearer context to what’s happening in the broader economy.

Leading Economic Indicators

When geopolitical tensions and market volatility dominate the headlines, the economy can feel unpredictable.

Leading economic indicators can sometimes signal shifts in the economy before they show up in the news—helping you better understand what may be ahead.


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Sources: https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns/ytd , https://www.slickcharts.com/nasdaq100/returns/ytd​

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